Storm surges combined with sea level rises could create new islands around the North Wales coast, according to data projections. Sections of the region's coastline may be left marooned as they are encircled by the sea, as can be seen in the maps below.
Dramatic effects could be seen at low-lying Llandudno where, cast adrift, the Great Orme would tower mysteriously above the mainland like a Welsh Skull Island. Off Anglesey, rising water levels are expected to cut Holy Island in two.
In Denbighshire, boat trips may run from Rhyl Botanical Gardens to the underwater SeaQuarium and a new island containing what’s left of the town centre. Iconic views of Ynys Llanddwyn may become accessible only to the few with the means to cross the water to the once-tidal island.
READ MORE:North Wales forest with 'secret waterfalls' and eerie lodge rated UK’s best for autumn walks
READ MORE: The part of North Wales that 'should be in new national park' but isn't
On the flanks of the River Dee Estuary, an archipelago of small islands may emerge from what was once Deeside Industrial Park in Flintshire. Near Caernarfon, the island of Ynys Foryd will be the new guardian of the Menai Strait as semi-submerged Caer Belan (Fort Belan) peaks from beneath the waves.
And all this by 2030, just seven years away, according to inundation maps created by US analysts Climate Central. But before you rush to the nearest life raft, it’s not yet time to panic. The data requires interpretation.
The projections are based on predicted sea level rises and annual storm surges. In other words, the flooding events illustrated on these maps are expected only to be temporary occurrences each year.
For them to become permanent, sea level rises of around 2.5-3.0 metres will be needed in most places to create the islands depicted by Climate Central’s maps. On current trajectories, this won’t happen for another century, perhaps two. Climate Central gives another major caveat: its projections are for coastlines with an “unobstructed path to the ocean” – and many towns on the Welsh coast are protected by sea defences.
By Climate Central’s calculations, places like Fairbourne, Gwynedd, will be partially submerged by 2030. It won’t, thanks to its sea defences which, on current thinking, will last until 2054. Were it not for inevitable storm surges, parts of the village could still be inhabitable for years afterwards, its remaining residents watching on as neighbouring homes slowly disappear beneath the surf.
Climate Central’s analysts accept the limitations of their models but say they are meant only as screening tools to identify areas of high flood risk. They said: “Our approach makes it easy to map any scenario quickly and reflects threats from permanent future sea-level rise well.
“However, the accuracy of these maps drops when assessing risks from extreme flood events. Our maps are not based on physical storm and flood simulations and do not take into account factors such as erosion, future changes in the frequency or intensity of storms, inland flooding, or contributions from rainfall or rivers.”
Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
Regardless, they are indicative of what may happen at some time in the future depending on numerous variables. Given the nature of estuaries, it’s inevitable these will feel the full force of rising seas and accompanying storm surges as they sweep inland and overland. Some of the most emphatic impacts will be seen on the Dyfi Estuary as progressive inundation makes islands of two wildlife reserves, Ynyslas and Ynys-Hir.
More dramatic still may be the shifting shape of the Glaslyn Estuary as sea water rises over Tremadog and past Prenteg all the way up to Pont Aberglaslyn, once again creating a potential trade route for boats. In its wake will be a series of islands, the smaller ones waiting to the swallowed by the sea as its waters rise still further.
![Holy Island off Anglesey could become Holy Islands if Trearddur Bay is inundated to the Inland Sea](https://i2-prod.dailypost.co.uk/incoming/article27907085.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/2_AFRDPW121023NewIslands_04.jpg)
In contrast, the Great Orme will continue to stand proud, separated by a narrow strait from the island of Llandudno. With half of Penrhyn Bay underwater, the sea will cut inland towards the A55 and follow the road back around the limestone hill of Bryn Pydew to the River Conwy, marooning Llandudno, Deganwy and Llanrhos.
By this time Conwy Golf Club will have been affected by annual storm surges that also cover Morfa Conwy and the A55. At the eastern side of the resulting island will be a submerged tunnel that once carried four lanes of traffic under the River Conwy.
By 2030? Really? Probably not. Many of these areas are walled from the sea. Nevertheless, Climate Central’s projections give a glimpse of what may happen sometime in the future if the worst were to happen and further safeguards are not put in place.
Find out what's going on in your neck of the woods