House prices in Wales are forecast to flatline in 2024, property analysts believe. The market is expected to keep falling in the first six months of the year before recovering as lower interest rates kick in.
This year’s anticipated property crash hasn’t materialised but house prices are now lower almost everywhere in Wales than at the start of 2023, regardless of property type. Prices have been tumbling since the September 2022 budget and in some places well before then.
Some parts of Wales have fared worse than others. In the year to September, house prices in Wrexham dived 6.1% to level at £196,000, the second biggest fall in Wales behind Blaenau Gwent (-11.2%). On Anglesey, property values were down 4.9% to average £236,000, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
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The downward trend wasn’t being experienced everywhere: over the same period, Denbighshire saw a 1.9% rise to £208,000 – the third biggest increase behind Monmouthshire (4.7%). Prices in Flintshire were up as well, to £218,000 (1.4%).
Gwynedd saw a modest 0.6% rise to £213,000, but in-depth analysis of the county’s figures painted a different picture of the county's longer-term trend. Using ONS data, and comparing January to September prices with the same period in 2022, estate agents Hamptons International showed house values in Gwynedd fell 1.1% over the year – the 10th biggest decline of any local authority area in Britain.
Hamptons said “larger than average” declines were expected in Wales in 2023 as in recent years the country has seen some of the UK’s strongest price growth. It is forecasting a further fall in the first quarter of 2024 (4.0%) before prices start recovering later in the year.
The net result will be zero growth over the year in Wales, the company expects. Gains should continue into 2025 as the market bounces back.
However there are fears Gwynedd may be left behind if an Article 4 Direction is implemented on September 1, 2024. This is a planning device intended to control numbers of second and holiday homes by imposing usage restrictions.
Houses prices by local authority in Wales
- Anglesey: £236,000 (-4.9%)
- Ceredigion: £258,000 (0.5%)
- Conwy: £217,000 (-0.7%)
- Denbighshire: £208,000 (1.9%)
- Flintshire: £218,000 (1.4%)
- Gwynedd: £213,000 (0.6%)
- Powys: £246,000 (-3.8%)
- Wrexham: £196,000 (-6.1%)
- Wales: £215,000 (-2.7%)
- These ONS figures are for September 2023, with percentage comparisons to September 2022.
Designed to address housing shortages in Gwynedd, opponents fear Article 4 will cause house prices to drop across the board, affecting residents as well as second and holiday homeowners. A resident claimed values are in freefall already as the market is squeezed by high mortgage rates and a raft of local price controls.
With valuations of his house dropping "more than £90,000" in the past year, he slammed the local authority on social media. “They are destroying the investment people have worked for most of their lives for,” he said.
“Look at the house market sites – all houses have dropped over £60k and more. My advice to young people now is... it’s not worth buying a house in Gwynedd.”
A woman claimed her house was recently valued at £85,000 less than she was expecting. “And mine is the cheaper end of the scale,” she said. “Now I’d love to be magnanimous about this and think … never mind, at least young people will be able to live their dream life near the sea like I couldn’t. But sadly I won’t be able to buy what I want now, so I’ll end up working harder for longer.”
Cyngor Gwynedd Council’s Cabinet will next year decide if Article 4 should be introduced, having examined the results of a public consultation. Eryri National Park Authority is also considering whether to take the same step.
If the measure does squeeze house prices in Gwynedd – which the council itself expects to happen – there are plenty who think it’s a price worth paying. A housing crisis is preventing young families from getting on the property ladder at tourism hotspots – with implications for Welsh language and culture.
One man said: “As someone with a house in Gwynedd who could lose out financially, I’m still in favour of something that helps with this issue. There’s a lot of factors that can impact house prices and at least Gwynedd is trying to solve an issue.”
![House prices in Wales soared during the Covid pandemic, with the country seeing some of the UK's strongest growth. But in the past year price growth has fallen away as high interest rates bite](https://i2-prod.dailypost.co.uk/incoming/article28208800.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_AFRDPW301123HousePrices.jpg)
According to property website Zoopla, house prices are falling fastest in Southern England. Also under pressure was Powys, where Zoopla said prices dipped 3.9% in the year to November.
Property values are still rising in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where coastal areas are still popular with mortgage-free retirees. And despite recent pressures, overall prices remain “well above” pre-pandemic levels, said the online agent.
In the year to July, the volume of transactions tumbled 23.5% in Wales. Yet the supply of homes for sale in the UK is at a six-year high, said Zoopla. It blamed poor buyer demand for property, now 13% lower than in 2019.
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